Bitcoin traded higher after holding support around $32,000 on Thursday. Bearish sentiment is starting to wane as buyers fuel a relief rally from Tuesday’s shakeout low of around $29,000. The cryptocurrency is up about 4% over the past 24 hours, but is still down about 8% over the past seven days.
As June comes to a close, roughly 69,000 bitcoin is set to expire at a notional value of $2.37 billion, according to data source Genesis Volatility.
“Max pain levels are good to keep an eye on going into an options expiration like this,” wrote Greg Magadini, CEO of Genesis Volatility, in an email to CoinDesk. The max pain level for bitcoin implies a rally up to about $40,000, which is also the strike price with the most open interest.
At the current price, this will be the second smallest month-end options expiry of the year, compared to a notional value of about $6 billion in March.
This month’s options expiry will occur with lower volume and a tight trading range this month, suggesting weak demand from buyers.
Ether’s market-capitalization relative to bitcoin is below 40%, according to Skew. A similar situation occurred in 2018, which preceded a period of underperformance in ETH vs. BTC.
The chart below shows ETH/BTC declining from resistance over the past month.